So, each year 'round this time, we run a little no-money betting pool among the consultants, journalists, candidates, campaign staff, lobbyists, and hacks. Pick the winners of the big races and some obscure races, and your name goes up in lights. This year, we asked to pick correctly in 44 separate Oregon campaigns -- from the gubernatorial to some relatively obscure local and judicical races. (No offense to the judges.)
Well, here's the results. Which Oregon pundits reigned supreme?
Top Pundits
We have a three-way tie for first place - with 40 of 44 picks correct:
- Jonathan Poisner, executive director of OLCV
- State Senator Richard Devlin
- Jack Isselmann, attorney and lobbyist
We also have a three-way tie for second place - with 39 of 44 picks correct:
- Charlie Burr, Kulongoski press staffer
- Rob Wagner, political director at AFT-Oregon
- Len Bergstein, uber-hack and KGW political analyst
Honorable Mentions: As of the count on November 12, Mary Starrett has 48,138 votes. Kulongoski campaign manager Jim Ross predicted that she would get 48,000. Guess we know why he makes the big bucks. Weyerhauser lobbyist Greg Miller also picked 48,000.
Among the top six finishers, only Rob Wagner came remotely close on the tiebreaker - he projected Mary Starrett at 45,019.
Eleven folks got 38 right. Nineteen got 37 right. Eleven got 36 right. The names of all those top finishers are listed below.
Our Collective Wisdom
The median score was 30 out of 44 right. Collectively, as a group, we were mostly right -- except when we were spectacularly wrong.
- 94% picked Governor Kulongoski to win, but only 37% correctly predicted a majority-vote win. Only 54% picked Ginny Linder to win the Supreme Court race.
- A majority picked all but one ballot measure correctly (#47). On the combined 46 & 47 question, only 14% correctly predicted #46 to fail while #47 passed. (Tough one, I know.)
- Only 45% correctly predicted 'no change' for the State Senate, even though healthy majorities picked all the winners right.
- The Oregon House was the big surprise for many folks. Only 31% correctly predicted a 31-29 majority in the Oregon House. Slightly more than half of the folks correctly picked Jean Cowan and Chris Edwards to win their races, and only 45% of folks picked Karen Minnis to retain her seat. (Yes, that hurts, doesn't it?)
- While 78% picked Jeff Cogen to win in the Multnomah County Commission race, only 52% picked Lynn Peterson to win her campaign in Clackamas County, and only 38% correctly picked the upset of Gresham Mayor Chuck Becker by challenger Shane Bemis.
Here's the list of the rest of the participants who scored above the median... the top 165 of 341 participants:
(40) Jonathan Poisner
(40) Jack Isselmann
(40) Richard Devlin
(39) Charlie Burr
(39) Rob Wagner
(39) Len Bergstein
(38) Nathaniel Applefield
(38) Jen Wagner
(38) Josh Berezin
(38) Brian Newman
(38) Tim Nesbitt
(38) Ken Ray
(38) Ryan Deckert
(38) Mary Nolan
(38) Jed Jorgensen
(38) Dave Hunt
(38) Tom Chamberlain
(38) Willie Smith
(37) Jennifer Shmikler
(37) Brendan McCarthy
(37) Joel Shapiro
(37) Roy Scheer
(37) Kevin Looper
(37) Phil Donovan
(37) Morgan Allen
(37) Ed Dennis
(37) Scott Bolton
(37) Kari Chisholm
(37) Trent Lutz
(37) Chris Warner
(37) Laurie Wimmer Whelan
(37) Kelly Brooks
(37) Randy Tucker
(37) Sara Gelser
(37) Michele Rossolo
(37) Sal Peralta
(37) Ken Allen
(37) Tom Powers
(36) Katy Daily
(36) Tom Novick
(36) Damiana Merryweather
(36) Chuck Riley
(36) David Jarvis
(36) Steven Davis
(36) Jon Isaacs
(36) Larry Galizio
(36) Andy Darkins
(36) Elizabeth Wilson
(36) Danelle Romain
(36) Paul Cosgrove
(35) Meredith Shield
(35) Clinton Downs
(35) Rick Bennett
(35) Chip Shields
(35) Phil Barnhart
(35) Jonathan Eames
(35) Patrick Green
(35) Harlan Levy
(35) Jesse Cornett
(35) Jill Thorn
(35) Todd Foster
(35) Don McIntosh
(35) Josh Kardon
(35) Brent Barton
(35) L Smith
(35) Ginny Burdick
(35) Bill Linden
(35) Ronald A. Buel
(35) Gary Conkling
(35) Brian DeLashmutt
(35) Jefferson Smith
(35) Blaine Palmer
(34) Jock Mills
(34) Jacob Vasey
(34) Jonathan Pulvers
(34) Dmitri Palmateer
(34) Bill Bradbury
(34) Marc Zolton
(34) David Williams
(34) Sam Chase
(34) Tricia Smith
(34) Pete Forsyth
(34) Jeston Black
(34) Jon Chandler
(34) Josh Balloch
(34) Matt Swanson
(34) Ellen C. Lowe
(34) Lucas Melcon
(34) Alan Fleischman
(34) Mike Linman
(34) Marcia Kelley
(34) John Calhoun
(34) Geoff Sugerman
(34) Andy Maggi
(34) Jake Oken-Berg
(34) Adam Petkun
(34) Duke Shepard
(34) Jeremy Wright
(34) Ben Cannon
(34) Bob Estabrook
(33) Suzanne Kunse
(33) Mike Reiley
(33) Andrew Simon
(33) John Hummel
(33) Kendra Kimbirauskas
(33) John Mulvey
(33) Kristin Flickinger
(33) Bryan Johnston
(33) Rachel Alenduff
(33) Nicholas Callero
(33) Patton Price
(33) Rhett Lawrence
(33) James Carlson
(33) Rebekah Orr
(33) Jared Mason-Gere
(33) Susan Matthews
(33) Jim Craven
(33) Randy Stapilus
(33) Drew Johnston
(33) Jon Pugsley
(33) Amy Goodall
(32) CM Hall
(32) Maxwell Fritz
(32) Paddy McGuire
(32) Mara Gross
(32) Aron Carleson
(32) Greg Miller
(32) Karynn Fish
(32) Deborah Kafoury
(32) Drew Hagedorn
(32) Harvey Mathews
(32) John Turner
(32) Mary Antoinette Conley
(32) Michael Simon
(32) Mike Selvaggio
(32) Joe Baessler
(32) Nick Batz
(32) Gavin Weld White
(32) Elixabeth Hammondo
(32) Stephen J. Hauck
(32) Eric Lemelson
(32) Jeremy Rogers
(31) Carl Fisher
(31) Debbie Dorris Koreski
(31) Pat Ryan
(31) Brendt Hess
(31) Laura Bridges-Shepard
(31) Grant Schott
(31) Mark Schwebke
(31) Mike Riley
(31) Becca Uherbelau
(31) Barbara Smith Warner
(31) Rich Rodgers
(31) Karol Collymore
(31) Seth Prickett
(31) Jim Ross
(31) Katherine Pfeiffer
(31) Darrell Fuller
(31) Andi Lipstein
(31) Jeff Alworth
(31) Jayme Rabenberg
(31) Patrick Sieng
(31) Robin Denburg
(31) Joel Fowlks
(31) Isaac Laquedem
(31) Marc Abrams
Posted on November 10, 2006 in punditology | See full archives
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